Who will get to Sub8 first: Lucy Charles Barclay or Nicola Spirig?

“I think a frontrunner’s mentality is what you need when you’re chasing times.”

To go under eight hours for the women’s record, common wisdom perceives it as a matter of when, not if. Chrissie Wellington’s record in 2011 came tantalisingly close. Daniela Ryf got within four minutes to Chrissie’s time, but she wasn’t specifically pursuing it.

There’s more on the chopping board now with half iron distance world titles and other titles that athletes can pursue, ergo not many people have set their hand to it. It’s only really been in the last decade that times and records have become a main driving force behind racing.

Nicola Spirig is probably one of the greatest female triathletes to ever compete. There’s always been a discussion around her move up to iron distance, but when you have so much success on the Olympic level with a gold and silver in the last two Olympic Games, you’re European champion several years running… there’s been no rush for her to move up in distance.

I think she has the experience, the strength, the balance as an athlete to do that. Daniela Ryf was the #2 of Nicola Spirig; she was put on teams to assist Nicola to win races because in Switzerland they didn’t believe Daniela could win. Nicola’s super well-rounded and balanced and capable of doing anything. Her only limitation will be her lack of experience at the distance, but she’s got more experience as a triathlete than any other women racing in the world right now.

Her marathons are strong, her bike power is strong, and she’s a very strong swimmer in Iron distance terms. She won her debut iron distance race over a tough course in Cozumel! I think she just has never looked for or needed recognition by chasing Kona wins. But she’s said, look I just want to do one iron distance race and I want to do it fast. I want to go after the fastest time of all time, and that’s me. 

She’s got kids, she’s a big sports star in Switzerland and is bigger than triathlon in that sense.  But with SUB8 she saw the opportunity to take on a challenge where she can just focus on what she has to do, the numbers she needs to make to pursue a record — as opposed to getting caught up in a world championship chase. This is a personal challenge for her. Her inexperience over the distance may be a problem, but she is definitely a gold standard athlete.

I think Lucy Charles-Barclay is an exciting racer because she’s capable of setting that new benchmark. She’s relatively new; she’s three years as a pro, she’s finished three times second at Kona, so she’s still on the upward trajectory in her learning curve.

Her swim is better than the fastest men in the world, so she’s going to set up a big time which should be close to eight or nine minutes quicker than Chrissie Wellington just after the swim. That is huge. Her bike capability is magnificent; she spends a lot of time working on that, she’s led off the bike in Kona, she’s been in the top two finishers for multiple years in major championship events… She’s just a frontrunner, and I think a frontrunner’s mentality is what you need when you’re chasing times. You can’t be a tactical strategic racer. You need to be someone who’s prepared to go off the front, understands and trusts their judgment and pace, and can execute that over the distance.

That’s where I think Lucy has a lot of momentum coming into this challenge because she’s going to be ahead of the curve pretty much for the entire day. It’s only the marathon — which is still developing, we’re talking two years down the track for her and her marathons are getting quicker as the years go by — it’s only the marathon that she needs to really work through. But mentally she’s used to racing this way every race she does. 

She’s got youth on her side, she’s got a lot more ironman experience in her, a lot less triathlon experience compared to Nicola, but she’s an Olympic standard swimmer so she’s an athlete at heart.

If you get the right conditions and everything’s set up for them I think that’s well and truly achievable. Either one of them can do it.